Saturday, May 24, 2008

Comparative analysis of global trends in 21st century for management and genetics

Comparative analysis of global trends in 21st century for management and genetics

Wenting Jiang

We are now facing to a whole new era of the world, the 21st century, whereas many common concepts and ideas used before are no longer compatible to the new century. The trends will deeply affect the way of thinking, operating and leading in management. Interestingly, when talking with some of my friends dedicating in biology, especially genetics, I found out that many trends happened in management can also be found in modern genetics. So let’s explore some of the important new ideas in both areas which are seemed to be far away.

First of all, this is the time for information, all kinds of information develops explosively. Through internet, the information is floating around and anyone at anywhere can get access to it. So for the management, how to handle the information and select from them the most useful ones are becoming more and more important. We need high efficient thinkers and high intelligent teams to do the job.

Same for the genetics, after Watson and Crick discover the molecular structure of DNA, all of the information contained in the molecule seemed to be clear and with one major problem, too many information! For example, human genome contains approximately 750 Megabytes of data with all kinds of possible combinations. How can we handle them? Similar to management, well, the thinkers we have for genetic analysis are powerful computers with great ability of handling large data size.

Beyond explosive information, another trend we have is the faster rate of change; this increases the data size even more. Steady information is limited, no matter how big it is, these information can be studied and explored to the end, but with change, it is hard to say when it will end. For the future managers, the skills of insight and imagination are essential. The skill of insight will grant you the ability of anticipating trends and problems, and change before it happens. Good imagination also does the same job as insight; making use of reasonable imagination for the future will help you to do better preparation before others.

Modern genetics is also an area full of changes, which geneticists call it mutation. Gene is not steady as it changes with a certain rate but with random direction. Especially for microorganisms, the rate of change is really fast, that’s one of the reasons why we cannot treat many diseases well, such as Aids, it is easy to kill a particular kind of virus, but what if it changes?

Interconnectedness is also a sign and nature of the new era. Boundary-less of different areas and more and more inner connections between them have been shown everywhere. Just like this paper would point out, comparison between genetics and management, how can we imagine that there are so many similarities and connections between these two areas before? Management now is not an isolate subject but a broader and general idea applied in many areas, and in the opposite, knowledge from other areas also affect management greatly. Many breakthrough ideas are “stolen” from other subjects, such as economics, physics, psychology, chemistry and many others. Furthermore, inside management itself, many ideas from unlinked areas are transformed to each other’s systems to help developing its completeness.

Same thing happens in genetics, rather than its own tasks, geneticist will cooperate with other scientists to do more complex research. It is closely related to biology, neuroscience, physiology, agriculture, chemistry, artificial intelligence and so on. As mentioned above, in order to handle large data size, geneticists rely on computer. So computer algorithm design, mathematics, engineering and software design contribute a lot to genetics. The inner connections of genetics seemed to be more important, as gene itself is a highly organized and connected object. It contains many elements and each of them has its specific function of coding, control or protection.

Large amount of information, fast-changing and interconnectedness, the combination of the above three points forms the complete complexity description of the new world. The image of it is a dynamic, interconnected, complex and fast-paced world. Everything is moving, changing and connected. Based on the similarities of management and genetics, the skills and theorem can be shared between each other. “Simple agents with simple rules can create complex and unexpected behavior.” That’s what chaos theory says and it has been applied to management and creates an idea that the behavior of people or organization are pretty much unpredictable. We should use our insight and integrative thinking to deal with it.

This is also the situation of the modern genetics. Before the molecular structure, classic genetics is quite simple based on two Mendel’s law: law of segregation and law of independent assortment. But after the discovery of DNA, things change. Although the structure of DNA is still simply enough, with 4 different bases forming base pairs, three bases form a codon which will encode one amino acid. In total, 64 possible combinations of codons to encode 20 different amino acids.The rules are still simple, but with over 3 billion base pairs in the human genome, chaos is formed. Only 1.5% of genes are coding protein, together with large amount of genes with unknown functions. Simple agents with simple rules, but nearly impossible to predict its behavior. The change made this situation worse. Unpredictable behavior of genes plus the unpredictable behavior of mutation, what are we expecting to do?

Fortunately, the way used in management can also be applied here, integrative thinking, anticipating the result first from the experience and then think creatively. With only one slight change, instead of human intelligence, the thinker is the powerful computer. Scientists will teach the computer to think in that way; input the entire database, build algorithm for the computer to let them go through all the possibilities and output the desired results or the most possible ones.

This is just one of the examples that the management and genetics will share the same techniques to achieve the goals, we can imagine that after the development of both areas, more and more similarities will be discovered and they will contribute each other with their own methods, techniques, skills, ideas and concepts. Also, for the other subjects, the same rules here, just as one of the trends, interconnectedness, says that the connections among everything in the world will help each other, fulfill each other, and at last, build a wonderful future for each other.

Fast Company’s Fast 50 List: an analysis by David

In November of 1995, Alan Webber and Bill Taylor, two editors of the prestigious business publication Harvard Business Review broke free to start their own periodical magazine which they called Fast Company. One of Fast Company’s most notable features is their Fast 50 List, an annual list established in 2002, breaking down the 50 worldwide companies displaying use of the most innovative strategies.
The list released in March of 2008 featured the internet guru Google as the number one most innovative company, an appropriate selection due to Google’s exponentially increasing list of innovative features such as Google Maps, a geographical index of our entire planet, or YouTube, a web 2.0 video sharing community. Google originated as a search engine known for its aesthetic simplicity, the tool was simple to use and also tended to load faster on dial-up modem connections. Google now ranks number one on the Alexa web traffic monitoring system. Since its inception in 1998, Google has grown to be one of the most innovative business models in terms of internet corporations, and even in terms of a regular organization. Many of Google’s business strategies are applicable in any sense, such as their employee management program encouraging individual and collaborative creativity. Managers in any firm should maintain a close monitoring process of Google’s management strategies in order to better their own companies.
Coming in at a close second on the Fast 50 List is Apple, a computer company that has been lurking in the shadow of Microsoft since the 1970s. Apple has finally broken free with innovative creations addressing the demand of the general public, such as their bestselling MP3 player, the iPod, or their intuitive operating system, Mac OS X Leopard. Apple’s ground-breaking combination of clever marketing, modern design, and instinctive software has earned it the second position on the Fast 50 List. Like Google, Apple is an ideal business model for any aspiring corporation. Apple and Google have even executed many collaborative projects together.
The social networking tool Facebook comes in at number three on the Fast 50 List. Since its inception in 2004, Facebook has rapidly surpassed other popular social networking sites such as MySpace and Netlog in terms of user visit frequency. A unique innovation in Facebook is the ability for computer-savvy users to create their own applications. Since May of 2007, users have been able to upload their own application creations, thus adding to the experience of other users in the environment. This represents an extremely intelligent business technique on the part of Facebook, by increasing the value of their product at virtually no developer costs to the company. This is an innovative business strategy that can be useful to e-companies with little to no starting funds. Facebook has climbed from the hard drive of one Harvard student to the number three position on Alexa, an astonishing feat by any standards. Facebook has quickly grown to be a first-rate internet business model.
Upon an initial examination of the top three most innovative companies of the year, a common pattern that stands out is that all three are technology-based. While Apple is best known for its hardware, it occupies a significant market share in terms of software development. Some examples include the Mac OS X operating system, the iLife multimedia software pack, and the iWork office software suite. The reason for the success of these three technology-based firms in terms of innovation is that technology provides the best platform for innovation. Successful firms such as Coca-Cola, the soft-drink manufacturer, can only be innovative to a certain point, whereas technology-based firms can be infinitely innovative. For example, Coca-Cola made an apparent marketing error in introducing a supposed new formula to their beverage and then returning to the original “classic” version. They likely were hoping for the increased sales revenue that accompanies an innovative new product, but had no room for innovation and released overly similar beverages so as not to deviate from their successful formula. The entire decision is globally regarded as a blunder on the part of Coca-Cola, a once renowned corporation now shrouded in suspicion and controversy.
Notable companies following the top three on the Fast 50 List include Nike, Nokia, Amazon, and Nintendo, each notably introducing a new dimension of innovation in their respective fields. Nike introduced NIKEid, an online tool to customize and order sneakers. NIKEid allows consumers to decide between hundreds of options and colors for their running shoes and have them shipped to their door, an innovation attributed directly to Nike. Nokia has pioneered innovation in mobile telephony and information across the entire industry since the technology has been available. Amazon has changed the way consumers think about shopping, implementing an online store selling new and used products. Consumers pay for purchases via credit card and have them shipped to their doors. Nintendo’s latest gaming platform, the Wii, has changed the way video games are played by replacing the traditional type of game controller with a wireless three-dimensional virtual pointing device, an innovation that has earned the Wii phenomenal sales numbers. The student demographic has embraced the Wii, in a similar fashion to the success of Facebook and the iPod.
Innovative products will usually be rewarded in terms of superior sales revenue. Success for a firm wishing to sell a successful product or service will not come with observing innovative products from other companies but rather with observing techniques in which other companies are able to develop such innovative products in the first place. This is the key to success in such a rapid moving 21st century business environment.

Mini project 3: Article

Academic or Industrial career?

Whether your graduating in a couple of years, or just starting your bachelor’s degree, the choice between pursuing an academic or industrial career has or will eventually come to mind. By clarifying and discussing both fields this article will try and make this critical life choice easier.

Choosing to practice an academic career is defined as a "consequential decision." by psychologists in the sense that it will have a life-altering impact. Indeed, you need to note that it usually takes up to 15 years to go from a Master’s Degree, through a Ph.D, to the possible awarding of academic tenure. As you can see, the road is far from short and justifies why the decision should be taken carefully and be given a lot of thought. Under no circumstance should you choose to pursue this type of career under the pressure of family or friends.

Many PhD students I’ve spoken too have told me the academic career is what you make of it; it can be monotonous unbearable to the point that you feel like just quitting or it can be an experience full of innovation where everyday brings new knowledge. In order to make sure you are taking the right path here are some points and questions you need to consider while making you decision:

· Go after you passion: Are you an academic person? Do you enjoy elaborating about the same topic for hours? Or do you like to go to the field and apply your knowledge in practical life?

· Be aware of what you can and can't do with a Ph.D., and no matter what you pursue be sure it is for the right reasons. When talking about an academic career I often refer to a Ph.D because nowadays it is nearly impossible to have the first without the second.

· Suppose you were admitted in a graduate school with no funding, would you still consider an academic career?

· Be in harmony with yourself and make your choice according to your character and your goals. To illustrate, I’ll give the example of my sister who at first, decided to pursue an academic career. After a Master’s Degree in Pharmacology and halfway through her Ph.D in experimental medicine, decided she did not want to dissect mice and be confined to a laboratory all her life. She consequently joined the market place and is now a medical representative for LA ROCHE POSAY (a branch of L’Oreal).

It is important to note that getting a Ph.D does not necessarily mean becoming a professor. Earning such a degree means a huge commitment of time. I feel it is important to define what Ph.D is. “The doctor of philosophy degree is the highest academic degree granted by North American universities. Ph.D. programs are designed to prepare students to become scholars, that is, to discover, integrate, and apply knowledge, as well as to communicate and disseminate it. A doctoral program is an apprenticeship that consists of lecture or laboratory courses, seminars, examinations, discussions, independent study, research, and, in many instances, teaching. The first year or two of study is normally a probationary period, during which a preliminary or qualifying examination might be required. The probationary period is followed by an examination for admission to full candidacy, when students devote essentially full-time to completing dissertation research. This research, planned with the major advisor and the dissertation committee, usually takes 1-3 years, depending on the field. An oral defense of the research and dissertation before a graduate committee constitutes the final examination.”( "The Doctor of Philosophy Degree: A Policy Statement," in Reshaping the Graduate Education of Scientists and Engineers, Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1996, p. 1-3).To conclude this part, the academic career is a very flexible career, with a nice work environment, marked by many research awards, lifelong learning and a good job security. However you need to be determined and passionate about your research topic. If the academic career is not of much interest to you, the second option is the industrial career.

The industrial career, often designated by “the real world”, is the actual market place. It is a very different environment where success or failure varies from one person to another depending on how they prove themselves. It is the world where all or part of the knowledge you got in a bachelor’s degree is applied in real life conditions. You meet clients, deal with managers, and solve problems…. In other terms, welcome to the real world. You may achieve your goals and be a successful business person or … you may end up being a simple employee working the 9 to 5 hour shifts over and over again.

As a conclusion, which ever direction you opt for, you may succeed or may fail. This is why it is essential that your options be in harmony with your preferences. In this case, you cannot go wrong since you will end up working in you field of choice.

RAHBANI RAMZI #260230521

Mini-Project 3B: Childhood Obesity

Mini-Project 3B: Childhood Obesity
By Jessica Lamb


Obesity is prevalent in our society and is known as an international problem. We see it as an increasing epidemic among adults and children; however this paper concentrates mainly on children because it is important to recognize the problem and evaluate the solutions early on in their lives. In the last two to three decades, the number of overweight children and adolescents in the United States has doubled (Torgan, C. 2002). This statistic shows us how obesity is taking over the lives of children and is winning the battle. It is evident through statistics that this problem is getting out of control and is extremely serious because of the consequences that follow. Children who are obese have a 70% chance of being overweight in the future and also increases by 10% if one or both parents are overweight themselves (Torgan, C. 2002). The Merriam Webster’s Dictionary defines obesity as a condition characterized by the excessive accumulation and storage of fat in the body. The World Health Organization (WHO) determined that obesity is becoming more and more a global epidemic. In today’s society, consuming highly fat foods in our diets and having little or no physical activity makes it easy to become overweight or obese.

In order to better understand how the process of obesity works, we have to research the natural science aspect of it. Fat cells increase by numbers when a child is growing, however when the energy coming into the body is greater than the energy coming out of the body, fat cells are increased in size. If the fat cells are at their maximum size and the food coming into the body still exceeds the energy we burn off, the fat cells will start to increase in numbers. On the other hand, if diet and exercise is involved, then the fat cells will decrease in size, but not in numbers. The body mass index (BMI) is used to calculate 3 measurements, which are underweight, overweight and becoming overweight. The body mass index calculates the height to weight ratio and is very useful because it allows us to know where we stand. Any BMI between the 5 th and the 85 th percentile is considered to be normal, above the 85 th percentile means overweight and the 95th percentiles or above means that the child is excessively overweight (obese).

Research has shown that in today’s children, obesity is the most common nutritional disease. This is contrary to thirty years ago, where obesity was hardly seen in children. In a study done by Tremblay & Willms (2000), there was an increase in obesity of 17% among boys and 15% among girsl between 1981 and 1996. This drastic increase in childhood obesity has been seen in most of the westernized countries, but more specifically in Canada. Now, we are starting to see obesity at even younger ages. For example, a study by Canning (2004) showed that 25.6% of boys and girls in preschool (born in 1997) in Newfoundland and Labrador are overweight.

According to Neiman (2004), genetics can contribute to obesity; however the case is very low. He stated that only 1% of obesity is due to the fact that there are altered hormonal actions and if this is the case, by the help of parents and social workers, children can be guided and supported so they can work towards keeping their weight healthy. There is little possibility that genetics plays a huge role in the obesity of children however changes in the environment can effect how much energy is brought in and taken out and can definitely generate weight gain.

Eating high fat foods or overeating is another factor that causes obesity. Nowadays, in schools we see more and more fat foods that contribute to this growing epidemic. For example, now high schools serve more high fat foods and less of the foods that are nutritious and students have access to soda and candy machines. A study by King et al. (1999), showed from 1990 to 1998, the percentage of fruits and vegetables consumed by grade 6 students had decreased drastically. Another study in The Journal of Pediatrics (2004) showed that children are eating their food quickly and as a result, there is a larger intake of fats and a lower intake of fruits and vegetables. High calorie foods from fast food restaurants have low costs and are much more accessible than healthy foods and also contribute to the obesity problem (Casey, 2005). Many researchers suggest that if these factors are not included in the children’s lives, then childhood obesity will start to decline.

As well, childhood obesity can be caused by the lack of physical activity/exercise. According to Tremblay (2003), any type of exercise has an opposing effect on obesity. Exercise decreases the risk of being obese by 20% to 40%. Watching television or playing video games is an activity that children like to do, however it increases the risk of becoming obese by 10% to 60%. Twenty-five percent of Canadian children between the age of seven and twelve are obese and according to the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada it is because children watch television and play video games in replacement of physical activity. Children seem less likely to walk to school than back when their parents were going to school because of the changes in technology and the environment. Also, it is known that children who are inactive are like that because their parents are inactive as well and they don’t set a good example.

There are many different ways in which parents, teachers, schools and administration can do to help prevent childhood obesity. They need to start off by calculating the child’s BMI and begin to monitor how they progress month by month. Parents, teachers, schools, community leaders and health professionals have to come together with determination and help prevent this problem. Another way to prevent childhood obesity is to incorporate all kinds of fun physical activity in a child’s life and it should be modeled by their parents. An ideal way for a family to exercise together is to ride bikes together because it is a form of physical activity and it is quality time spent together. Programs should be created to educate parents and children and how to prevent obesity and it showed parents certain ways in which they can encourage their children to eat healthier and change their behaviors that contributed to obesity. It is important to cut unhealthy foods out of the whole family’s diet and to encourage your child get involved and to help cook healthy meals. A study done by James (2004) showed that getting rid of carbonated beverages in schools help prevent weight gain in children. The study was conducted at 6 primary schools and they were split up into 2 groups; the controlled group and the intervention group, where the controlled group consumed greater amounts of soda than the intervention group. Results showed that the percentage of obesity in children in the controlled group rose 7.5%, while on the other hand, the intervention group’s percentage decreased by 0.2%. To help our society with this growing epidemic, I think that the government needs to implement laws about the physical activity in certain schools. Some of the secondary research states that children and not getting enough physical activity in their daily lives and that schools aren’t making in mandatory for students to engage in gym class. By making it mandatory for children to engage in gym class, we would see childhood obesity as less of a problem. Also, parents and authority figures should encourage their children to eat healthy and lead healthier lifestyles. As well, schools should also get involved and get rid of the soda and junk food machines and replace them with more nutritional options.



Canning, P. M., Courage, M. L., & Frizzel, L.M. (2004). Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in a Provincial Population of Canadian Preschool Children. Canadian Medical Association, 171(3), 240-242. Retrieved from Proquest [Online Database] on May 17, 2008.


Casey, L. (2005). Growing Too Big: What parents should know about childhood obesity. Family Health, 21(1), 10. Retrieved from Proquest [Online Database] on May 21, 2008.


James, J., Thomas, P., Cavan, D., & Kerr, D., (2004). Preventing Childhood Obesity by Reducing Consumption of Carbonated Drinks. Journal of Pediatrics, 259-263. Retrieved from InfoTrac [Online Database] on May 16, 2008.


King, A. J. C., Boyce, W. F., & King, M. A. (1999). Trends in Healthcare of Canadian Youth. Ottawa.
Nieman, P. (2004). Childhood Obesity. Retrieved on May 20, 2008 from http://ditk-kids.com/articles/childhood_obesity.htm.


Torgan, C. (2002). Childhood obesity on the rise. The NIH Word on Health. Downloaded from: http://www.nih.gov/news/WordonHealth/jun2002/childhoodobesity.htm on October 10, 2008.


Tremblay, M.S., & Willms, J. D. (2000). Secular Trends in Body Mass Index of Canadian Children. Canadian Medical Association, 163; 1-11. Retrieved from Proquest [Online Database] on May 19, 2008.

I Stream, You Stream, We All Stream For... YouTube? By Nicole Zeng

I've always been a great fan of literature. I read piles and piles of books, and fill journals with my own work, hoping to partly mimic my literary idols (like Nabokov, and Márquez) and partly invent a new voice for myself in a whirlpool where only the greatest writers have lifejackets. It has always been a dream of mine to have some of my work published—a dream that is all too real now, with Media 2.0.

In the past decade (surely, no more than a decade), I've realized just how incredible and empowering Media 2.0 is. Web 2.0 tools, such as wikis, blogs, free and open-source software for media editing (e.g., Windows Movie Maker 2, Apple iMovie HD, Avid Free DV, Wax, DDClip Free, HyperEngine-AV) to name a few, have really helped "the many [wrestle] power from the few," as Lev Grossman of Time magazine wrote in the "Time's Person of the Year: You" issue. Not only can we produce our own articles and videos, we can have them fine-tuned by the whole world (how's that for an editor?) for free. Wikis allow for open editing, something that has helped make Wikipedia one of the most reliable and up-to-date encyclopedias of our time. Despite the criticism that Wikipedia allows for erroneous entries, at any given time, the error count in Wikipedia is equal to that of Britannica. Examples like the aforementioned are the exact reason why no one from "the few" is immune to the voices of "the many," certainly and most importantly not the media.

Before the Internet came, I remember, fondly, waking up on Sundays to huge, fluffy pancakes and watching my father struggle with the New York Times crossword puzzle. I also remember how crucial it was to read the paper, if you wanted to join in on conversations at the dinner table. My parents and their friends always had the authority on news and popular opinions, which they, in turn, got from the few journalists who wrote the news; life was so out-of-reach for a preteen (I believe the new term is "tween"). Suddenly, Internet came knocking on everyone's door. The whole neighborhood got AOL (America OnLine) and we all gathered around the computer as our technologically advanced guest showed us a new dimension.

Even in the immediate post-internet era, the World Wide Web was just another authority on information: we could now access The New York Times via internet, but it was no different from reading it in the physical form. However, curiosity and courage from people like you and me (perhaps a bit more well-read in technology than I) made the Internet of the 21st century much more user-friendly. Now, we have the tools to make the news. We have the power to be more selective. If we can't find information that interests us, we can make it ourselves.

In this era, we are the media. Citizen journalism, riding on the backs of open platforms such as YouTube and CurrentTV, proliferate daily. If the (old) media rolled their eyes at open platforms for amateur journalism a few years ago, their eyes have since been unrolled: they can't ignore the fact that YouTube has more than 42% of the market for online video-sharing. Nor can they ignore the fact that their own websites have been financially sinking (according to the annual report on American Journalism, The State of the News Media 2008). The problem? The criticisms are legitimate: amateur videos are... well, amateur. Most undeniably, home videos posted on the internet are still inaccurate sources for world news. That said, the professional media have started to explore the opportunities that the internet has to offer:
"The most promising element heading into 2008 may be innovation. The news industry now appears to be taking a new technology in earnest. Sites are evolving quickly and, in a new development, the mainstream media are now among the more experimental players."
The State of News Media 2008

So, what's in store for Media 2.0? In terms of news, there will still be a dominant, reliable source. As I write this, CBS is in the midst of acquiring CNet, as will Microsoft attempt the same with Yahoo. However, as the old fogies at ABC, CBC, BBC, etc., open their minds, we can expect to see articles online that allow for comments (which we already have) and open editing via wikis. We can expect more exploration into internet videos—a realm that's to be more riveting and current than TV, according to Kurt Andersen's New York magazine article, "You Must Be Streaming." We can also expect a universal shift from TV shows to homemade internet videos, as viewers’ growing interest in the latter continue.

As well, there are a plethora of other gadgets and gizmos to be expected. The most prominent example: Bill Gates predicts that "natural user interface" technology (i.e., voice and facial expressions recognition will replace the mouse and keyboard), according to David Graham's thestar.com article "The Future's in the Wink of an Eye." Most importantly, there will be battles. Battles for intellectual property (e.g., whether sharing is illegal or not), for a new code of ethics and morals in the 21st century (e.g., will "freedom of the press" allow for dangerous and harmful words? Will the internet provide widespread of terrorism with even fewer boundaries?), for new rules in communications (e.g., who, now, will decide on the birth of new words? Will "LOL" and "TTYL" be entries in the Oxford English Dictionary?). Additionally, will the freedom of internet press just provide an even larger whirlpool within which it'll be even harder to discern good from bad writing?

I'd like to end with Ben Mutzabaugh's answer to the last question: "In print it's easy to feel you are at odds with readers because people will find one little thing wrong. So as a journalist you get defensive. The readers on a blog chime in and help you. They want you to get the story right." What a relief, for an aspiring journalist like myself, to hear that Media 2.0 has got my back.

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Additional Resources:
1. Briggs, Mark. "Journalism 2.0: How to Survive and Thrive". J-Lab. May 24, 2008 .

2. Tapscott, Don, and Williams Anthony D.. Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything. New York: Portfolio Hardcover, 2006.

Mini-Project 3

Analysis of what it is coming in the investment world


Dear managers,

I have been thinking for about a month on how we can be more innovative and creative in the way we are investing the money of our clients. Since I am in this company, it is easy to see that the business is going well and everybody is happy. Therefore, as a broker who is always looking for innovation and creativity, I looked at new trends in the economy of the world and there is an important conclusion that we have to realize. The time when Eastern countries, Japan, China, and India, will lead the world is not that far. Right now the way these countries are improving in term of how they think is sensational. For example, if you look at China and India, they are the fastest-growing economies. The desire of both countries to strike partnership between each other and with other countries is evident. As investors, we need to take advantage of that. Most of the brokers in the Western part of the world think that China and India can not collaborate, they can just compete. But this is changing and China and India are more likely to work together in certain fields. China is getting so specialized in manufacturing and infrastructure. As for India, it is specialized in services and information technology. I think we must be creative thinker and forecast the possibility that a lot of Occidental companies will go (if it is not already done) in the East to start business there and get competitive advantage over their competitors. We must concentrate our efforts on finding these companies because they will have an edge in terms of innovation. For example 3M and Unilever, two companies that installed divisions in China and India are already seeing the benefits. Right now, foreign companies get red-carpet treatment from the governments of China and India. We have to keep an eye on that 21st century trend.

Also an important aspect is that both countries have a growing appetite for natural resources such as oil, coal, and iron ore. Therefore, I really think natural resources will be a field where investments will be profitable for the next 10 or 15 years. These two countries together count for almost half of the world’s population, they will need those resources. Researches show that China will become the largest and India the third-largest economies in terms of purchasing power. In 2016, both countries together will account for around 40% of the world trade. This means that companies in Europe and North America will have to supply a tremendous amount of products. Once again, we need to be aware of that and make the right choice in the companies we pick. I think that companies with an international division that are creative and not scared of challenges will succeed in the next 10 years. There is also the possibility of investing in a company that is from China or India because economists think that bilateral trade could reach $50 billions by 2010. It is quite a huge amount of money and this is why I suggest that investment companies should send people in these countries to find the right company to invest in. The opportunity is there, we have to use it. Another advantage for companies to do business in these countries is the human capital. For example, in China the labour is very cheap. Companies have an incentive to go there because they reduce labour cost. At the same time, companies can turn toward India for design and develop products. Indian workers have talent to market and for service products.

Another situation in China right now is the fact that there are over 350 millions smokers. This amount is increasing by more than 3 million a year. Also the amount of non-smokers in China affected by passive smoking was 540 million as of 2007. What these numbers mean is that about two-thirds of the Chinese population either smokes or is affected by those who do. More than one millions Chinese die of smoking-related illnesses every year and this number could reach three million by 2050. This situation brings investors to think about how we can profit from that. If you look at it, for sure tobacco companies will profit from this situation, but drugs companies also because more people are getting sick due to the smoke. You can also search for companies that will try to eliminate smoking and replace this habit by something else. We certainly have to keep this situation in mind and take the right decision about it. I mean the rational one.

In India, there are the software and service companies that are really good, but in the near future we need to look at industrial companies. Government thinks about huge urbanization plans. They want to build a tremendous amount of buildings and streets. Therefore, we can forecast that construction companies, cast-iron companies, asphalt companies and engineers companies will have a nice future. They will also need a lot of natural resources.

Now, if we do not want to miss the boat of the 21st century we really have to look at Japan. This country is the second-best economy in the world and offers an incredible amount of opportunities. Investors need to be aware of what is going on in this country. One major aspect of Japan that is almost ignored is its highly competitive domestic market for consumer goods. Because it is so competitive, cycles of products are really short. In that case, it is more important to search for companies with good implementation strategies and with a strong innovation department. Companies in Japan are good for investment. Japan offers rich and unparalleled ideas and insights for both product development as well as the field of marketing and communication. Applied to their home markets, these ideas and insights could provide foreign companies with significant competitive advantage. In the 21st century, it is a must to look at Japanese companies. Japan seems to be already adjusted to the 21st century. They are good to develop and adjust products for specific target groups. They develop products for newly emerging lifestyles. They develop products that consumers have been waiting for. They create campaigns that cut through the clutter. They make sure customers are truly satisfied and they use technological innovation to gain competitive edge. It is all that we want as investors. Communication, marketing, commodity good and electronic companies are great fields to look at. But a situation that we have to take care is the fact that Japan’s society is aging fast and by 2025, more than 30% of the population are going to be 65 or older. So the Japanese seniors are the most affluent market because they spend large sums on education, recreation, transport and communication. They will also consume a lot more drugs too. It is important to be aware of that, because Japanese companies are putting a lot of efforts to address the needs of this consumer’s group. Mobile phone companies (huge field of business in Japan) are especially designing phone for senior citizens. Technology companies are creating robot dolls to keep company to people living alone. Also, there are the car companies that are making efforts to allow safe driving by seniors. These are facts for Japan, but this reality is also coming in Western countries. The Japanese companies will have a competitive hedge when the Western baby-boomer generation will retire and need all these products. Another important point that American companies need to know if they want to do business in Japan is the fact that women are choosing the freedom of life as working singletons over marriage and motherhood, and are exerting their independence through consumption, therefore they buy a lot of items. In the 21st century, women will be an important target market in Japan. We can look at American and Japanese companies that are trying to reach women. One of the most interesting points is that Japanese care a lot about the environment. Their approach to environmental awareness is not focused on consuming less (as for example in Germany) but on embracing an environment-focused lifestyle based on consuming more and different products such as a washing machine working without water, furniture that can grow plants in, and a kitchen which includes space to cultivate vegetables and herbs. Thus, sustainable and socially responsible companies will be the place to invest our money. To summarize, Japan is the leader for electronics. New products and gadgets appear on a daily basis, especially in mobile technology, where Japan is several years ahead of the US and Europe.

Finally, I really think that as investors, we need to go back in front of our computer screen and reflect on how we can change our strategies to include the Eastern countries. The coming together of China and India puts at a disadvantage many companies, especially from the West, that refuse to react to this trend. They will not be able to generate the synergies that their Chinese and India rivals can. If they lose share in those two markets, they are given China and India’s size. China and India will be market leaders for many years. For Japan, the reality is already at our door. They are so powerful. We just need to be creative and innovative thinkers and take advantage of the opportunities in front of us. By making rational and socially responsible selection of companies, our future will be even better!!

Have a good day and for any questions E-mail me,

Benoit Arsenault

Mini Project 3

A Beautiful Face behind a Hideous Mask:

A Look into how the Mass Media creates an army of mindless zombies

By: Kenneth Lim 260301211

In our highly advanced technological society today, there are countless possibilities in which we can be influenced by our mass media. They create expectations and we are “conditioned” by them to think and react in certain ways just like puppies doing some tricks such as “fetch” or “roll over” for its master. So, who are our masters you may ask? Well, they are the people who are in control of what goes into the media content; what we watch on television, what we see in posters and what we generally observe and hear everywhere that we tend to go and every corner that we choose to turn. Yes, I am talking about the mass media and how it plays too major of a role (which is dangerous) in modeling us into the “ideal” man, woman, teenager or child. However, without being beneficial to our society, mass media has instead succeeded in creating mindless zombies out of us. We have become over sensitive (due to frequent exposure) to things which apparently matter the most in the “ideal world” (created by the mass media) such as fame, physical beauty and wealth. In turn, we have also become desensitized in our senses, our priorities and our own lives. Fortunately, there is a treatment and immolation to this plague, which is by realizing ourselves and our true purpose in life.

Our first step towards self-liberation is to understand how this “Zombification” process takes place. In chronological order, it can be briefly summarized as followed:

1) We are exposed to media content (at any age and any type of programs)

2) We subconsciously learn what they want to teach us (especially from commercials and advertisements; what is the “idea?”)

3) We become seasoned to it after continued exposure (at conscious level; finding this “idea” everywhere we go)

4) We are reinforced when this “idea” becomes a common topic to talk about among our colleagues (as social beings, we have a natural need to feel belonging)

5) We eventually give up and join the zombie race (everyone suddenly shares the same mentality and thus becomes mindless)

But how exactly is making everyone think the same way a bad thing? There are many negatives variables to this equation and some of the more obvious ones would be the following:

1) A loss of self esteem for those who are not “fit” enough for the “ideal world” and thus feels outlier from the others (ie: indifference in looks or way of thinking may cause the person to enter depression or have suicidal thoughts).

2) A loss of potential creative minds (if people are not given the opportunity and motivation to be indifferently who they really are, many innovative ideas thought by creative people would be overlooked as useless knowledge and thus be unable to become shared benefit knowledge).

3) Stereotypes will become a reality (ie: already in the world, there is racism due to lack of understanding. Mass media, when controlled by the wrong people, could possibly worsen the situation by amplifying the negative thoughts generated through the “mobs”)

I remember while reading some of Shakespeare’s collection of work during my leisure time, I came across him saying something vaguely similar to this: “Each day of mine is like an act and this life is my stage.” Essentially, I believe this quote is trying to tell us that all of us are indeed actors in our own plays. We can choose to let the world (audience) see us for who we are by revealing our face (individual values/ideas) or we can conceive it behind a mask (playing a “fixed” role decided by someone else) thus protecting our own identity.

Our faces differentiate us into who we are as individuals in society. And I refer to it as faces because man can have many faces. A face is a symbolic representation of a personality. Thus, we can have multiple personalities. Yet, this should not be confused with having a “dual personality” which occurs when a person is unaware that he has another side of himself sleeping quietly who will only awaken when it is his turn to go to sleep (ie: the famous story of “Dr Jeckle and Mr Hyde”). It is also important to take note that people can share similar personalities but no two people can be absolutely identical in the way that they naturally behave. Attitudes should not be confused with personalities because attitudes are more general while personalities are more unique.

Masks on the other hand were first created when people had a desire to “role play,” to pretend to be someone or something else other than that which they really are. The modern movie stars’ job is to entertain the audience and although they do not always physically wear masks, by pretending to be a character of a story, they are already engaging with the hiding of their faces. With that being said, media does not make us “movie stars” but they do give us different masks to wear. The only problem is that they choose the masks for us and once we get into the habit and comfort of wearing those masks, we forget how our own faces look like (temporary, if not, permanent loss of self identity).

Now that we know what mass media does along with the negative personal and social impacts from it, we should be careful not to lose ourselves in this age whereby the “plague” of mass media is everywhere. The truth is that all of us do have creative minds but mass media standardizes the way we perceive things. It is like we are being mass produced similar to toy puppets in a factory. So do not be controlled, do not lose the sense of who you are and do not wear those masks offered to you no matter how tempting they may seem to be. That is because too many people have already been victimized by mass media. Am I the only person who finds that most people in society are hiding a beautiful face behind a hideous mask? The suffering must stop now!

~Alas, there shall come a day when taking off the mask which we have grown so accustomed to wearing will result in ripping off and disfiguring our face along with it~ Ken 7:6

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Book Club Discussion with The Next Step

We have been given the gift of variety. Our group, The Next Step, had a rich variety of books from which to gather great insight for the 21st century: Plow, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate, High Noon: Twenty Global Problems, Twenty Years to Solve Them, Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything, and Our Molecular Future. After extensive discussion and reflection, as a team, we decided on four emerging themes:
1. Efficient non-hierarchical structure for future organizations
In the 21st Century, there should not be any more top-down management structures. Rather, cooperation and collaboration from all levels of a business are the keys to innovation and efficiency. The greatest ideas can come from the least expected places!

2. Innovations and technology achieved through multifaceted methods
As mentioned, ideas no longer need to come from one place, nor are they generated by one method. For example, in Wikinomics, Boeing used waterproofing technology from a diaper company.
3. Tapping into the resource of collective intelligence and the global brain
4. Open-mindedness and non-conventional thinking
The last two themes are ubiquitous in all our books. Open sourcing allows for organizations to take extensive advantage of all that may be available to them. As well, non-conventional thinking leaves an organization without boundaries for innovation.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Book Club for the 21st Century: The Tipping Point

Executive Summary

The Tipping Point,

by Malcolm Gladwell

Gladwell’s work is an interesting piece unveiling the misconceptions of several key issues in our society. The Tipping Point, as Gladwell describes it, lies in the core of every change that has been brought about in our society, ranging from fashion trends, to crime rates in the largest city in North America, and even extends to deadly epidemics. In a whimsical prose full of astonishing facts, Gladwell depicts to us the necessary conditions that can lead the smallest change in society to the tipping point and turn it into an unstoppable wave of transformation. His book focuses on many examples that demonstrate changes in society that have hit the tipping point and have prospered to become internationally widespread. He begins in his introduction by discussing the sudden rise in popularity of the Hush Puppies footwear that has spread throughout North American in the early 1990s. He then echoes this rise in popularity with the sudden drop in the crime rate of New York City in the late 1990s. Through these examples, as well as many more, Gladwell analyses and breaks down the very complex epidemics present in our society into concepts and ideas that are easy to understand. Here lies the very genius of this masterpiece as it brings about a revolutionary way of seeing the world, where not all progression is linear, but rather exponential. Such revolutionary concepts bring about new means of understanding the world for many leaders of today’s society.

According to Gladwell, every social epidemic relies on three factors; the Law of the Few, the Stickiness Factor, and the Power of Context.

First and foremost, the Law of the Few represents the idea that any social epidemic is dependent on three different types of individuals that contribute their skills and talents towards bringing a small change to epidemic proportions; Connectors, Mavens, and Salesmen. Connectors are people who instinctively develop connections with people, be it only acquaintance, and who are able to bring the world together through their spatial talent. They are the small group of people that have a large number of connections that make up the social phenomena of six degrees of separation, linking the world together. It makes sense to see these types of people in the business world that act as networkers who are capable of getting things done through the various links that they hold with the rest of the business world. These are the people who can get you the right person at the right time.

Second are the Mavens who are the information specialists who are very knowledgeable in every field, who read reviews, and know who is selling at the right price. These are the people that can either build or destroy popularity of anything that comes along. These are the people to look for whenever in need of advice as to what to get and where.

Third, and most important, is the Salesman. These types of people are those who are capable of motivating people to action. They possess charisma and are skilful in the art of persuasion. Not only are they capable of convincing someone but they possess a certain character trait that makes others want to agree with them.

It is finally in the understanding of the role that these three different types of people play in society that the leaders of today can be able to shape the future of tomorrow. By reading this book, societies in the world will be able to develop a “new way of understanding why change so often happens as quickly and as unexpectedly as it does”1. In any business or organization, it is always possible to discern the three types of people mentioned above. There will always be a connector which networks people to achieve a certain goal, mavens who will always exist connecting people to the right information, and salesmen that will act as persuaders or motivators in achieving a common goal. It becomes imperative for managers and leaders to be able to discern these types of people in order to be able to make full use of the resources and manpower that is available to them to better their organization and society as a whole.

However, as Gladwell describes it, there also exists a certain Stickiness Factor that is necessary in achieving the tipping point. The Stickiness Factor is that specific character of a message that makes it memorable which impacts the receiver spurring him into action. In many cases, the use of such message provides and effective and irresistible means of attracting the audience and holding their attention. Clearly, this factor not only plays a crucial role in today’s society when we are bombarded with advertisement wherever we go, but also in any enterprise we might undertake. The stickiness factor not only allows us, as great leaders, to grab our audience’s attention, but to also instil a change in people’s minds or to leave behind a glimmer of understanding and belonging.

Finally, one of the most important factors that must be taken into account is the Power of Context. Not only are we, as human beings, susceptible to manipulation and persuasion, we are also greatly affected by our environment. The power of circumstances influencing trends in our society is greatly underlined by Gladwell. As he so eloquently describes it, the Broken Window theory, a seemingly trivial environmental factor, holds great importance in the spread of crime throughout the city of New York. A broken window can be interpreted as a sign that the property is abandoned which invites people to commit crimes. The well lit gym might influence some to believe that the sports team playing in that gym are somehow more talented than those playing in a darkened gym. Here lies an important concept of environment affecting human behaviour. Furthermore, many examples that Gladwell brought about clearly demonstrate that situational context can easily overwhelm inherent character traits. This shows how people are capable of actions whether or not it is in their habit or personality to behave in such a way. Personality or character has little or no bearing on their behaviour. This concept not only provides us with an immensely powerful tool as leaders of our society, but also enlightens us on the intricacies of human character and behaviour and how they are related. The idea that the behaviour of a person can be influenced by merely the type of environment they are subjected to promises us a means of control, a means of exerting power by simply manipulating the context of a situation.

Ultimately, Gladwell provides us with the means of starting a word-of-mouth epidemic by utilizing the three types of individuals in order to achieve our goals. Using the stickiness factor, Gladwell teaches us that it becomes imperative to develop a message that is inconspicuous, and yet capable of reaching out and grabbing people’s attention and lay control over people’s emotions. Given the right push, we are capable of radically transforming people’s behaviour or beliefs. Through his book, he’s also able to convince people that not only is change possible, but it is inevitably destined to cross the tipping point given the right circumstances. Any individual that reads this book would not only benefit by acquiring an innovative way of understanding social epidemics of various proportions, but will also benefit in acquiring a new skill-set necessary for any leader of the 21st century.

By David Goldbaum (260237668)

Book Club-Our Molecular Future

In the book Our Molecular Future Douglas Mulhall shows us how “nanotechnology, robotics, genetics and artificial intelligence will transform our world”. The book starts out with how technology can make an impact on the 21st century. It describes how by manipulating things on a smaller level such as the atomic level we are able to create the greatest impact in our lives.
The book first starts off with telling us about what kind of benefits technology may be able to offer us. For instance, a 3D printer that is able to “print” out a model instead of a picture is being worked on right now. After it becomes cheaper and more available we can use it in the medical field to create artificial limbs. Not only can it be used in medicine architects can also use it to build models and filmmakers can use it to make props. By creating things on a nano scale we are able to create super strong material and also build microscopic robots that are able to clean our arteries and therefore eliminate heart diseases. Furthermore, many of us spend lots of time looking for things everyday. However, with a SPS system and nano sensors inserted into everything we have we will be able to track things easily and not have to look for things anymore. Super computers that are flexible enough to be put into a pair of jeans can allow us to create pants that are smarter than you
This book not only talks about the various benefits technology can have on our society in the 21st century, it also talks the idea of technology. Science is not the only thing about technology since technology does not simply depend on a good scientific idea. Breakthroughs in technology occur through different combination of factors. Many break through occurs with a combination of new technology and accidents. In the book, Mulhall gave an example about the invention of Polaroids. The inventor of Polariod went to the Grand Canyon with his daughter. His daughter asked him, why they couldn’t see the pictures right after they took it. A simple careless question like this is enough for a new invention to be made. However, a good idea is not enough. The Polariod Company was famous because of their new innovative idea but they soon went bankrupt. The invention of digital cameras made the Polariod company run out of business. Technological companies need to constantly try and improve themselves. The Polariod Company stayed in the same place while others kept on advancing. As a result new technology will take over. Thus in order to survive companies need to try and improve themselves constantly. Factors such as cost and availability can determine how successful a technology can be. Factors such as natural disaster and miscalculation can disrupt a technology from advancing or being widely promoted. Most importantly if a disaster is to occur in a technological field the research of this field could be stopped by decades. Thus researchers not only have to worry about their research they also have to worry about the fears and concerns of the public and their acceptance or approval to the product if they want their idea to be commercialized. Researchers have to be very careful about their work because a small mistake could stop the research from developing for a very long time.
Technology can also advance through other reasons other than a good scientific invention or idea. Factors such as the invention of a drug that can cure AIDS can cause technology advancement to accelerate greatly. This is because there will be an increase support caused by potential beneficiaries. In the 21st century, you must consider the different approaches in every issue. Even when considering science you cannot just consider only its scientific side. Every time there is an invention, there is a shock involved and the acceptance to this shock is very important in determining if this invention will be successful or not. Technological change occurs exponentially but the rate at which these changes find their ways out of the lab and into our daily lives do not occur as quickly since it depends on investment and consumer demands. Even if technological changes occur if they don’t get to the general public they are not considered useful and thus are not considered as technological advancement.
Technology is one way to make the 21st century different from any other century before it. Some of the new fields that will be developed include robotics, artificial intelligence, genetics, and nanotechnology. Robotics involves the creation of robots that may be able to wash our dishes, clean our house or wash our clothes for us. Artificial intelligence is similar to robotics but it involves looking at the intelligence level of machines. Genetics can look at researches in cloning or genetic modification and nanotechnology allows us to recreate things such as robots but on a smaller scale. These robots are then able to work in our body to help us fight against diseases.
Many more advancements can still be made. For instance we can create humans with super intellifence. We can turn the moon into a tourist place. We can eliminate language barriers between different countries by creating self improving translation software. We can also create clothes that can adapt itself and change when the temperature or humidity of the environment changes. Robots that can repair DNA strands in our blood and use nanotechnology to create supercomputers the size of a piece of dust.
The only problem is, perhaps we are not ready for all this. We are not able to handle the shock or the super war weapons that can cause instant world destruction. Also, we have to start killing some of our own creations fearing that they might take over us. Or even worse we may start to kill each other using our own creations.
Even though it all these ideas may seem a bit crazy right now but technology is advancing at a very fast rate. This book was published in 2002 and a lot of the ideas presented in the book that may seem futuristic at the time it was written are already common things we see in our everyday life. For example, the idea of changing the whole library into an online data base so readers can access the books electronically has already been carried out. Also, the idea of sharing information by means of an open source is also achieved through the use of blogs and websites such as Youtube and Wikipedia. These websites allow us to learn from each other and share with others what we know. Different pools of knowledge are found everywhere on the internet, giving those who are willing to learn unlimited access of information and knowledge.
Before technology goes too far there are some things we have to do and some principles we have to follow before our technological advancement goes too far. First we have to try and learn how to coexist with the intelligent machines before they learn to control us. Even though we are advancing at a very fast speed into the future we should still find ways to remember our past and not forget where we are form. We might even need to create a new government system to cope with the creations with artificial intelligence.
This book not only taught us about technology and the innovative ideas behind it it also talked about the importance of the other factors that may be able to promote technology. Furthermore, it teaches organizations and people about how to survive. A good idea is a good way to start a successful business but its not enough to sustain it. The ability to change and adapt to new environment and the willingness the listen, observe and learn from others is also key. Persistent may be a good thing but if a company is too stubborn and unwilling to change while everyone else is advancing, soon the company will not be able to compete with the rest of the world and eventually it will collapse. Also, technology maybe able to provide many beneficiaries to our society but just like everything else, it must be used in moderation!

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb


Bronwyn James - 260212705

Why are black swans impacting our lives?

“Consider that thinking is time-consuming and generally a great waste of energy, that our predecessors spent more than a hundred million years as nonthinking mammals and that in the blip in our history during which we have used our brain we have used it on subjects too peripheral to matter.” (xxii)

Many in society consider an absence of proof equivalent to a proof of absence. Prior to the discovery of Australia in the 18th century, where black swans are common, it was widely accepted in Western culture that all swans were white. The term ‘black swan’ developed from this sudden change in common knowledge – only a single black swan was necessary to eradicate this previously unquestioned fact. In the book, Nassim Taleb defines a black swan as a highly unlikely event that is unpredictable with substantial consequences. These events are perceived post-hoc as part of the predictable sequence of history.

Taleb divides the world into two fundamentally different types of data, those from ‘Mediocristan’ and those from ‘Extremistan’. In Mediocristan, there are known limits to what any given value can be. Limits impede outliers from significantly impacting the average. Omitting an outlier doesn’t change the nature of the data. No single data point comprises a significant proportion of the total in a large sample. Mediocristan follows the Gaussian bell curve, also known as the normal distribution. The further away from the mean, the less likely an event is to occur. In Extremistan, there is no known limit to what any given value can be. A single point can comprise a huge proportion of the total. Thus, omitting one value can skew results. When theories are developed, people have a “natural tendency to look only for corroboration” (58). This confirmation bias can produce negative ramifications in our complex modern world. Taleb suggests employing a strategy of “negative empiricism”, as “knowledge does not increase from a series of confirmatory observations” (56). Only one instance contrary to a theory can invalidate it.

For the vast span of human development, Mediocristan has been the norm. Ignoring outliers had no adverse impact on an individual’s survival and success. Today, the world is changing. Extremistan is dominating more and more elements of our lives. While the 80/20 rule is widely discussed, Taleb prefers to focus on the more extreme 50/01 rule. The rule holds that one per cent of the world population controls fifty per cent of the world’s assets. With the distribution so distorted, the normal distribution no longer applies. Experts throughout the world continue to apply the bell curve to determine risk. Despite consistent failures, they slog on with precise estimates. Taleb theorizes that analysts validate their inaccurate predictions by attributing mistakes to factors beyond their control while success is always the result of their deliberate actions. From Taleb’s empirical studies on prediction, it can be concluded that people have an innate desire to be precise, even when there is no incentive for a narrow estimate. Ever the contrarian, Taleb opines, “I’d rather be broadly right than precisely wrong”.

Another element of the normal distribution is that all events are independent. When a coin is flipped, the previous outcomes have no bearing on the result. This characteristic of the Gaussian bell curve is rarely present in real life. Instead, events tend to be highly dependent, creating a cumulative advantage – or disadvantage. With several examples, Taleb illustrates “how an initial advantage follows someone through life” (217). However, black swans and chance interrupt accumulations, both positive and negative. The potential for a virtuous (or vicious) succession of events is mitigated by randomness, ensuring that “nobody is truly established” (225).

Taleb’s awareness of the prevalence of black swans leads him to comment on the vulnerability of the current financial system. Published in April 2007, Taleb assesses the weakness of the banking sector several months before the advent of the credit crisis. Globalization has increased the interconnectedness and homogeneity of the banking sector, resulting in “interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability” (225). This interdependence, coupled with fewer banks of larger size, “seems to have the effect of making financial crisis less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale”, with devastating results (226).

There is a cognitive dissonance in people’s understanding of Taleb’s argument. Many agree with his position at face value yet proceed to apply a Gaussian context to events that are inherently non-normal. This seeming contradiction pervades many aspects of human life. Logic learned in the classroom remains within its academic framework, it is “domain specific” (53). Our brains do not easily transfer concepts from the abstract to practical, or vice versa. Similarly, people interpret and rationalize black swans on an individual basis, without realizing broader trends. September 11th is not perceived as an example of an event that “stand[s] largely outside the realm of the predictable” (xxi). Instead, common wisdom has developed “precise rules for avoiding Islamic prototerrorists and tall buildings” (xxi).

A black swan can be positive or negative – and Taleb advises how to minimize the effect of negative ones while maximizing our exposure to the positive. Black swans, by their nature, are unexpected. Thus, risk is at its lowest when it is most visible, most scrutinized, and hence most expected. Invest when the circumstances are asymmetric, “where favorable consequences are much larger than unfavorable ones” (210). It is generally simpler to focus on the ramifications of an occurrence than its probability.